All Issue

2025 Vol.1, Issue 1

Article

Expected Benefit Analysis of Aircraft Accidents Using Probability Distributions and Monte Carlo Simulation: Focus on Overrun Cases

항공사고 확률분포 기반 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 통한 편익 분석: 과주 사고를 중심으로

Youngjoo Oh1
,
Cheonjin Park1
,
Kihan Song2*
오 영주1
,
박 천진1
,
송 기한2*
1Master’s Course, Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology
2Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology
1서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과 석사과정
2서울과학기술대학교 건설시스템공학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
19 September 2025. pp. 1-12
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

Aviation accidents result in both human casualties and substantial economic losses. In South Korea, policy attention to preventing runway overrun accidents has recently increased. Given their low-frequency, high-consequence nature, probabilistic modeling is needed beyond simple case-based analyses. This study classifies past overrun accidents into three severity levels and models their occurrence probabilities and loss items using appropriate distributions. Annual accident frequencies are estimated with the Poisson distribution, and Monte Carlo simulations are applied to derive the distribution of total annual losses and expected benefits. The proposed framework incorporates loss uncertainty and supports cost-benefit evaluation of aviation safety investments and policy decisions.

Keywords
Loss Cost
Expected Cost
Probability Distribution
Monte Carlo Simulation

항공사고는 인명 피해뿐 아니라 기체 손상, 조사 비용 등 막대한 경제적 손실을 초래한다. 최근 국내에서는 활주로 과주 사고 예방에 대한 정책적 관심과 대응이 강화되고 있다. 특히 저빈도·고비용 특성을 지닌 항공 사고의 경우, 단순 사례 기반을 넘어 확률분포 기반의 기대편익 분석이 필요하다. 본 연구는 과거 과주 사고를 기체 손상 정도별로 세 등급(상·중·하)으로 분류하고, 등급별 발생 확률과 피해 항목을 확률분포로 모델링하였다. 연간 사고 건수는 포아송 분포로, 주요 피해 항목은 각 특성에 적합한 분포를 추정하였으며 Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션을 통해 연간 총 피해 비용 분포와 기대 편익을 산정하였다. 제안된 분석 체계는 피해 불확실성을 반영해 향후 항공 안전 인프라 투자 타당성 평가와 정책 의사결정에 기여할 수 있다.

키워드
피해 비용
기대 편익
확률 분포
Monte Carlo 시뮬레이션
References
1

Song K. H., Lee D. K. (2014), The Aircraft Accident Cost Estimation Model for ALARP Decision-Making in Safety Management System, Journal of Aviation Development of Korea, 62, Korea Civil Aviation Association, p.87-105.

2

Čavka I., Čokorilo O. (2012), Cost-Benefit Assessment of Aircraft Safety, International Journal for Traffic and Transport Engineering, 2(4), Scientific Research Center Ltd., p.359-371.

10.7708/ijtte.2012.2(4).06
3

Lee C. G., Jang W., Na S. B., Lee H. (2020), A Study on the Measures for Forecasting the Variability of Overseas Construction Cost by Utilizing Proper Probability Distribution according to Risk Characteristics Between Areas, The Society of Convergence Knowledge Transactions, 8(3), The Society of Convergence Knowledge, p.133-142.

10.22716/sckt.2020.8.3.028
4

Kim Y. W., Oh S. D., Moon Y. B., Yang S. J., Lee C.-Y. (2024), Economic Feasibility Analysis of a Jeju Onshore Wind Power Project Using a Stochastic Methodology, Journal of Climate Change Research, 15(2), The Korean Society of Climate Change Research, p.261-270.

10.15531/KSCCR.2024.15.2.261
5

Baik S., Kim W., Lee N., Yi H., Jeong Y., Ahn N. (2023), Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Defect Ratio Estimation Approach for a Chemical Materials Stockpile Reliability Program, Journal of Advances in Military Studies, 6(1), Institute of Defense Acquisition Program, p.1-17.

10.37944/jams.v6i1.179
6

Kim G. Y., Joo H. T., Kim H. J. (2017), A Study on Probability of Heavy Snowfall Disaster Using Poisson Distribution, Crisisonomy, 13(5), Crisis and Emergency Management: Theory and Praxis, p.135-151.

10.14251/crisisonomy.2017.13.5.135
7

Wali B., Khattak A., Waters G., Chimba D., Li X. (2018), Development of Safety Performance Functions: Incorporating Unobserved Heterogeneity and Functional Form Analysis, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2672(30), National Academy of Sciences: Transportation Research Board, p.9-20.

10.1177/0361198118767409
8

Lym Y. (2024), Examining Neighborhood-Level Vehicle Crash Risks in Daejeon Metropolitan City Using Spatiotemporal Bayesian Models, Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial Cooperation Society, 25(5), Korea Academia-Industrial Cooperation Society, p.176-184.

10.5762/KAIS.2024.25.5.176
9

Choi J. H., Ko I. M., Cheon S. (2011), A Zero-Inflated Model for Insurance Data, Journal of Applied Statistics, 24(3), The Korean Statistical Society, p.485-494.

10.5351/KJAS.2011.24.3.485
10

Geberemariam T. K. (2020), Deterministic and Probabilistic Engineering Cost Estimating Approaches for Complex Urban Drainage Infrastructure Capital Improvement (CIP) Programs, International Journal of Scientific Engineering and Research (IJSER), 8(10), IJSER, p.1-13.

10.70729/18092001
11

Bidhandi A., Herrera R. F., Poshdar M. (2025), Simulating JIT Implementation in Prefabricated Construction: A Digital Framework for Supply Chain Optimization, Proceedings of the 33rd Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction (IGLC33), IGLC, p.657-668.

12

OECD (2012), “Mortality Risk Valuation in Environment, Health and Transport Policies”, p.127-128.

10.1787/9789264130807-en
13

European Commission (2019), “Handbook on the External Costs of Transport”, p.198.

14

FAA (2024), “Unit Replacement and Restoration Costs of Damaged Aircraft”, p.5-3.

15

FAA (2024), “Aviation Accident Investigation Costs”, p.8-7.

16

World Bank, www.worldbank.org, 2025.08.06.

17

Bank of Korea Economic Statistics System(ECOS), ecos.bok.or.kr, 2025.08.06.

18

Inouye D., Yang E., Allen G., Ravikumar P. (2017), A Review of Multivariate Distributions for Count Data Derived from the Poisson Distribution, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Computational Statistics, 9(3), Wiley, p.1-40.

10.1002/wics.139828983398PMC5624559
19

Emwinloghosa K. G., Okoh J. E., Eviano J. I., Monsuru A. A. (2025), A New Triangular Probability Model: A Combinatorial Modification of Probability Distributions, African Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, 8(2), ECRTD, p.40-47.

10.52589/AJMSS-GFXKGRVS
20

Raychaudhuri S. (2008), Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation, Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference, p.91-100.

10.1109/WSC.2008.4736059
Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Airport
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국공항학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Airport
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국공항학회지
  • Volume : 1
  • No :1
  • Pages :1-12
  • Received Date : 2025-08-08
  • Revised Date : 2025-08-23
  • Accepted Date : 2025-09-12
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.23379/jkosap.1.1.1
Journal Informaiton Journal of the Korean Society of Airport Journal of the Korean Society of Airport
  • NRF
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • KCI 문헌 유사도 검사
  • orcid
  • open access
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close