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Article

A Study on Inbound and Outbound Air Passenger Demand Forecasting Model in Korea: Focusing on Asia Region

우리나라 인바운드 및 아웃바운드 항공여객 수요예측 모형 연구: 아시아 지역을 중심으로

Soyeon Kim1
,
Eunji Kim2
,
Hojong Baik3*
김 소연1
,
김 은지2
,
백 호종3*
1Researcher, Department of Air and Space Transportation, Korea Transport Institute
2Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Air Transportation and Logistics, Korea Aerospace University
3Professor, Department of Air Transportation and Logistics, Korea Aerospace University
1한국교통연구원 항공우주교통연구본부 연구원
2한국항공대학교 항공교통물류학과 박사과정
3한국항공대학교 항공교통물류학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
30 June 2026. pp. 42-54
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Abstract

There has been a research on international air passenger demand forecasting in Korea, most of it has been done by airport or specific airports or routes, using regression analysis to predict the total volume and then distribute it. Currently, the trend of international air passengers in Korea varies greatly by country and between inbound and outbound, but there has been a limitation of not reflecting the characteristics of each. In addition, the prediction model through regression analysis must satisfy the three basic assumptions, but in previous studies, only the explanatory power of the model is finally examined, and the statistical verification process is insufficient. This study aims to develop an inbound and outbound air passenger demand forecasting model between Korea and Asia, China, and Japan through regression analysis, and to derive a model that satisfies all three assumptions statistically. GDP and socioeconomic dummy variables were used as variables, and the model was diagnosed by examining the three basic assumptions of the regression analysis. If any of the basic assumptions were not satisfied, the model was improved by repeatedly trying to transform the dependent and independent variables. As a result of building basic models for Korea and Asian countries, the explanatory power of the basic models using GDP and dummy variables by country was valid, but all of them were found to violate at least one of the three basic assumptions of regression analysis, except for the Japanese inbound forecasting model. Therefore, we tried to log-transform the dependent and independent variables and finally derived a model that met all the conditions, and the explanatory power of the model was significantly improved from before. The significance of this study is that it divided international air passenger demand into inbound and outbound and derived a model that satisfied all statistical tests, and tried to transform the variables in the process. Furthermore, we hope that the methodology utilized in this study will be actively used in the future to build inbound and outbound demand forecasting models for various countries.

Keywords
Air Passenger Demand
Demand Forecasting
Regression Model

우리나라 국제 항공 여객 수요예측에 관한 연구는 꾸준히 이루어져 왔으나, 공항별 혹은 특정 공항이나 노선에 한정하여 회귀분석을 통해 총량을 예측한 뒤 분담하는 방식이 대부분으로 국가별, 인바운드 및 아웃바운드별 특성을 반영하지 못하는 한계가 있었다. 또한 회귀분석을 통한 예측 모형은 반드시 오차의 정규성, 등분산성, 자기상관성 세 가지 기본 가정을 만족해야 하나, 대부분 모형의 설명력만을 위주로 검토하여 통계적 검증 과정이 미흡하였다. 본 연구는 우리나라와 아시아, 중국, 일본 간의 인바운드 및 아웃바운드 항공여객 수요예측 모형을 회귀분석을 통해 개발하고, 회귀분석의 세 가지 기본 가정에 대한 검토와 모형 개선 과정을 통해 통계적으로 모두 만족하는 모형을 도출하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 변수로는 GDP와 사회경제적 더미변수를 활용하였으며, 회귀분석의 세 가지 기본가정을 검토하여 모형을 진단하였다. 이때 기본가정 중 하나라도 만족하지 않는 경우에는 종속변수와 독립변수의 변환을 반복적으로 시도하여 모형을 개선하였다. 우리나라와 아시아 국가별 기본모형 구축 결과, 국가별 GDP 및 더미변수를 활용한 기본모형의 설명력은 타당했으나 일본 인바운드 예측모형을 제외하고 모두 회귀분석의 세 가지 기본가정 중 한 가지 이상을 위배하는 것으로 확인되었다. 이에 종속변수 및 독립변수의 로그변환을 시도하여 최종적으로 모형을 도출하였으며 모형의 설명력이 이전보다 크게 향상된 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 국제 항공 여객 수요를 인바운드와 아웃바운드로 구분하고 통계적으로 가능한 검증을 모두 만족하는 모형을 도출하였다는 점에서 의의를 갖는다. 본 연구에서 활용한 방법론이 향후 다양한 국가 대상의 인바운드 및 아웃바운드 수요예측 모형 구축 시 활발히 활용되기를 기대한다.

키워드
항공 여객 수요
수요예측
회귀모형
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Airport
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국공항학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Society of Airport
  • Journal Title(Ko) :한국공항학회지
  • Volume : 2
  • No :1
  • Pages :42-54
  • Received Date : 2026-06-08
  • Revised Date : 2026-06-15
  • Accepted Date : 2026-06-26
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.23379/jkosap.2.1.42
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